January 2022
YOHANAN BENHAIM, ELISE MASSICARD & ALEXANDRE TOUMARKINE
Turkey’s new presidential system is moving towards its first national election, which will combine presidential and parliamentary elections. The transition to a presidential system in Turkey was seen as the end of parliamentary and partisan dynamics. However, this organization of the new regime has rapidly justified the rise of electoral coalitions, for the presidential majority as well as for the opposition.
This study intends to identify the cleavages, tensions and current trends within the partisan field in Turkey, and then to read the possible reconfigurations in the light of its articulation with the institutional and social fields.
It first focuses on the uncertainties concerning the electoral calendar and the expected results of the upcoming elections by focusing on the factors that determine them and can modify them. It then examines the internal dynamics of the two main electoral coalitions, as well as the Kurdish vote, as a determining external factor. Finally, it raises the question of the social coalitions and institutions on which each of the two camps could rely.