Towards a post-AKP Turkey? Parties and coalitions on the eve of the elections

January 2022

Turkey’s new presidential system is moving towards its first national election, which will combine presidential and parliamentary elections. The transition to a presidential system in Turkey was seen as the end of parliamentary and partisan dynamics. However, this organization of the new regime has rapidly justified the rise of electoral coalitions, for the presidential majority as well as for the opposition.

This study intends to identify the cleavages, tensions and current trends within the partisan field in Turkey, and then to read the possible reconfigurations in the light of its articulation with the institutional and social fields.

It first focuses on the uncertainties concerning the electoral calendar and the expected results of the upcoming elections by focusing on the factors that determine them and can modify them. It then examines the internal dynamics of the two main electoral coalitions, as well as the Kurdish vote, as a determining external factor. Finally, it raises the question of the social coalitions and institutions on which each of the two camps could rely.

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Yohanan Benhaïm is co-founder of Noria, director of the Turkey programme and head of contemporary studies at the French Institute of Anatolian Studies (IFEA) in Istanbul. For his PhD in political science at the University of Panthéon-Sorbonne, he studied the relationship between foreign policy and the political-administrative field in Turkey since the AKP came to power. He is particularly interested in Turkish foreign policy in the Middle East, the sociology of institutions and electoral mobilizations in Turkey. He is an associated researcher at Cetobac (EHESS), and at the Istanbul Policy
Center of Sabancı University.

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Elise Massicard is a research director in political science at the CNRS, CERI/Sciences Po. She was a scientific resident and head of the Observatory of Turkish Political Life (OVIPOT) at the French Institute of Anatolian Studies (IFEA) in Istanbul from 2010 to 2014. As a specialist in the political sociology of contemporary Turkey, she is particularly interested in the sociology of institutions, mobilizations, parties, and state-society relations.

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Alexandre Toumarkine is a professor of history at the INALCO, in "Contemporary Turkish History and Society. He has worked for 25 years in Turkey: in several universities in Istanbul as a professor, but also as scientific secretary of the scientific secretary of the IFEA and as senior fellow researcher at the Orient Institute Istanbul from 2011 to 2017, where he co-directed a Franco-German research program on new religiosities in Turkey. His research interests include Turkish foreign policy and its regional context, migration, the history of security institutions, wars and their memory, religion and its contemporary and its contemporary mutations.