{"id":599,"date":"2024-11-24T19:05:39","date_gmt":"2024-11-24T18:05:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/noria-research.com\/mena\/?p=599"},"modified":"2024-11-24T19:05:40","modified_gmt":"2024-11-24T18:05:40","slug":"the-palestinian-authority-a-plausible-post-gaza-solution","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/noria-research.com\/mena\/the-palestinian-authority-a-plausible-post-gaza-solution\/","title":{"rendered":"The Palestinian Authority, a plausible post-Gaza solution?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>At this point, the scale of human and material destruction in Gaza has rendered the place nearly uninhabitable. All indications, moreover, suggest Israel\u2019s destructive campaign will continue on for some time longer. Be that as it may, members of the international community are still devoting much of their energies into planning for \u201cthe day after\u201d. In these regards, the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza, a territory that has been out of its control since 2007, is not infrequently put forward as a viable option. For a number of reasons, this strikes as dubious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Brought into existence by the Gaza-Jericho agreement (also known as Oslo I), the Palestinian Authority (PA) was established in May 1994 to serve as an interim governing body for Palestinian lands occupied by Israel since 1967. Its tenure was designated at five years, a period during which Palestinian and Israeli negotiators were notionally meant to resolve final status issues kicked down the road in Oslo: principally, the status of Jerusalem, delimitation of borders, right of return for refugees, sharing of natural resources, and the sovereign rights of a Palestinian state. Alas, when the five years in question elapsed without agreements having been reached, inertia saw to it that the PA endured as a semi-autonomous government of sorts, its powers over matters as fundamental as land, water, airspace, and security subordinated to those of Israel. This year, the Authority rang in its thirtieth birthday, as far from sovereignty as it was in 1994. The rule of its President, Mahmoud Abbas, nears twenty years since last subjected to a plebiscite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What authority are we talking about?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Due to the failures of the process begun in Oslo, Palestinians in the Occupied Territories had been living through a succession of political crises well before October 7<sup>th<\/sup> introduced a rather seismic rupture: 2007\u2019s partitioning of the occupied territories and consolidation of dueling government authorities. Elections forever delayed or canceled. Authoritarian upsurges in the West Bank and Gaza. Intensified colonization. The blockade of Gaza. And, as commemorated in the Abraham Accords, regional marginalization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In many ways, the structure and design of the PA propelled this course of events. The truth is that the so-called &#8220;Oslo Accords&#8221; never envisaged the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state. Rather, they institutionalized an arrangement whereby the PA was enlisted as subcontractors for the Israeli military administration\u2014and whereby Palestine\u2019s economic dependence on Israel was quietly deepened. Premised upon security cooperation from the very start, the PA was allowed to hire tens of thousands of policemen and civil servants and to exercise a degree of control over the inhabitants of the Occupied Territories. It was obstructed, however, from opposing Israel\u2019s pursuit of colonial ambitions in any meaningful way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In terms of governance and advancing the Palestinian national project, the PA\u2019s record can only be called woeful. It has consolidated a highly securitized fiefdom, its police and intelligence agents eating up one third of annual budgets and numbering 85,000 as of the late 2010s (one for every 48 Palestinians, a ratio nearly nine times larger than that of the United States). Fed by counterparts in Israel, these actors maintain a system of surveillance and control designed to prevent the mobilization of a political opposition. As they do, Israel\u2019s construction of settlements continues apace and prospects of salvaging a two-state solution wither on the vine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Towards a surge of protest<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Excluding the 2006-07 crisis and the events which have transpired since October 7<sup>th<\/sup>\u2014the former leading to the partitioning of the occupied territories between a Hamas-dominated government in the Gaza Strip and a Fatah-led government in Ramallah\u20142021 was the most tenuous time for the PA. At long last, legislative and presidential elections had been scheduled to take place, the first of each in almost twenty years.<a href=\"#_ftn1\" id=\"_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a> However, Mahmoud Abbas announced their postponement in May 2021, his preferred euphemism for cancellation, prompting a wave of protest throughout the West Bank and Gaza. The PA responded to the protests with harsh repression. Many political opponents were arrested and some, like Nizar Banat, died while in the Authority\u2019s custody. As this was happening, the Israeli government compounded the PA\u2019s troubles by commencing a major offensive on Jerusalem. Over the course of months, state and sub-state actors in Israel attempted to evict the inhabitants of several Palestinian neighborhoods in East Jerusalem (Silwan, Sheikh Jarrah) while stepping up provocations and attacks on al-Aqsa Mosque.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In this context, Abbas\u2019 actions prompted a radical reaction in the West Bank. Armed activism surged for the first time since the second intifada, initially in the north (Nablus, Jenin) and then throughout most of the lands presided over by the PA. As it did and as Israel\u2019s campaigns in Jerusalem gathered speed, Hamas then launched Operation Jerusalem Sword (<em>sayf al-quds<\/em>). With its rocket attacks, Hamas could present itself as the sole legitimate protector of the Palestinian national project. Its actions drew an extremely stark contrast with the PA, which looked more interested in preserving its interests than in defending Palestinian rights.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>The non-viability of PA rule in Gaza<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>2021\u2019s developments\u2014the reemergence of civil and armed protests against the PA especially\u2014showed a popular desire to bring the fight against occupation and colonization back to the heart of Palestinian politics. And it is in view of these developments that the feasibility of deploying the Palestinian Authority into whatever remains of Gaza in the months and years ahead must be assessed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Throughout one of the most critical junctures in the history of modern Palestine, neither Mahmoud Abbas nor the PA has been anywhere to be seen. Having not even visited Gaza since 2006, Abbas\u2019 absence on national and international stages post-October 7<sup>th<\/sup> shows that the Strip has become a foreign territory for him, while the PA\u2019s disengagement reveals just how irrelevant it has become as an institution. Yes, the President has made a few tokenist efforts meant to reassert national leadership, such as his government reshuffle in March 2024. Nonetheless, while the new coalition gave privileged place to Gazan personalities, it continued to exclude those political currents standing in opposition to Fatah. It was also stitched together without anything resembling a democratic mandate. Perhaps most saliently, the current government, like the one before it, has demonstrated no capacity to influence the course of events in Gaza: If Mohammed Moustafa and his cabinet set themselves the task of delivering a ceasefire, they have no influence over such an outcome, never mind over how the place might one day be reconstructed. Making matters worse, Moustafa\u2019s government has also shown itself powerless in combatting the intensifying violence of settlers and the Israeli army in the West Bank. Surely, some of the ministers serving in the government have good intentions in taking up their posts. At the end of the day, though, they are viewed as participants in a Fatah plot for taking revenge on Hamas via a potential (Israel-arranged) PA return to Gaza.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Challenges for a Palestinian solution<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>On July 18, 2024, the Israeli parliament voted by an overwhelming majority (68 to 9) to oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state. More than reflecting the breadth of the anti-Palestine consensus in Israel, the vote clearly bodes ill for the Palestinian Authority\u2019s prospects in Gaza.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Where once shrouded in ambiguity, Israel&#8217;s determination to dispel any hope of a two-state solution is now clear as day. When it comes to Gaza, the Knesset vote, coupled with the recolonization campaign being advanced by certain ministers and settler movements, makes plain an intention to forcibly displace Palestinian populations and annex new territories. In and of themselves, Israel\u2019s schemes for reestablishing a permanent presence in Gaza will greatly complicate the logistics of a PA return.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even more problematic, however, is Israel\u2019s de jure and de facto treatment of Gaza as a space of exception. Since the unilateral withdrawal of its settlements in 2005 (though with greater confidence from 2007 onward, after Hamas took sole control of the Strip), Israel has engaged Gaza from a purely security-oriented vision. October 7<sup>th<\/sup> may have confirmed the illogic of this approach, but it has done nothing to shift Israel\u2019s strategy. Following the terms of the Generals\u2019 Plan, presently, Israel looks ready to divide the Gaza Strip by establishing a military zone in the north covering approximately a third of Gaza\u2019s territory. For the remaining two-thirds of Gaza\u2019s land mass, Israel\u2019s leadership has regularly signaled an intention to turn over security responsibilities to external parties. The name Mohammed Dahlan frequently comes up in discussions of that southern two-thirds. A former director of Preventive Security in Gaza\u2014where he once led the PA\u2019s relentless fight against Hamas\u2014Dahlan was expelled from Fatah and forced into exile in 2011 following accusations of corruption. Now advisor to Mohammed bin Zayed, President of the United Arab Emirates, Dahlan maintains good relations with the security establishments of Israel, Egypt, and the United States, and as such, has been floated as an ideal new strongman for keeping Gaza quiet. His ascension in southern Gaza would betray a political naivet\u00e9, though, as it would only further aggravate intra-Palestinian divisions and engender instability as a result. Simply put, there is no fix based on security considerations alone. Should the PA or anyone go along with Israel\u2019s plans, they will face a swift reckoning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then there is the question of financing Gaza\u2019s reconstruction. UN estimates project a bill in the area of $100 billion. Clearly, the PA has no chance of raising these kinds of funds on its own and would therefore need to rely on external donors, the Gulf monarchies in particular. And yet, Saudi Arabia is demonstrating less willingness for handing out cash to neighbors and also claiming its engagement in Gaza will be contingent on a political process aimed at establishing an independent Palestinian state, something Israel expressly rejects. As such, it is unclear these monarchies are going to be willing to play ball. Their refusal would likewise leave a PA Gaza venture dead in the water.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Finally, there is the general legitimacy crisis that the PA or any other Palestinian political aspirant must resolve. As alluded to, the PA\u2019s governance failures are legion and persistent, its non-democratic character imminently observable. In addition, despite recent negotiations in Beijing and Moscow, the PA and the PLO still face pronounced deficits of representativeness, with major political tendencies finding no seat at their tables (including Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad). To administer an environment as unstable and volatile as Gaza in these conditions is to invite disaster. More generally, lest the PA and PLO can find a way of restoring legitimacy, initiatives like that of Azmi Bichara, who is attempting to construct a new alternative outside the umbrella of the PLO for bringing together Palestinian figures from the Occupied Territories and the diaspora, should be expected to gather speed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Conclusions<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Mahmoud Abbas, the world\u2019s second oldest head of state (insofar as he can be called that), will soon turn 89. The succession struggle that awaits, be they for leadership of Fatah, the PLO, or the PA, renders plans for the \u201cday after\u201d in Gaza built upon the Palestinian Authority only more fraught.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Appointments Abbas has made in recent years\u2014Hussein al-Sheikh as PLO Secretary General, Mahmoud al-Aloul as Fatah Vice-President\u2014suggest he does not want his powers inherited by a single heir. If reasonable as a goal, the competition that could arise because of the uncertainty baked into Abbas\u2019 preferred post-mortem could nevertheless weaken the Authority\u2019s cohesiveness. And that is without other factions of Fatah, such as those organized around Marwan al-Barghouthi and Mohammed Dahlan, becoming involved in the battle for the throne.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also hanging over the future is the thorny question of resistance. Through its actions on October 7<sup>th<\/sup> and before, Hamas made itself non-excludable from any discussion of the Palestinian national project going forward. Naturally, this extends to discussions of Gaza\u2019s future. If it is difficult at the moment to imagine Hamas participating in the governing of Gaza, it is impossible to think that the party-movement can be marginalized from the process altogether. Doing so will risk civil war, at a time when the Palestinian people have already suffered so much.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The road ahead for the PA in Gaza looks threatening, to say the least. Without a major shift in Israeli policy, reestablishing a footprint in the Strip will most certainly be a drink from a poisoned chalice. Without the PA reinvigorating itself through seeking a democratic mandate, its hold on the West Bank may soon give way, too, along with the last remnants of its claim to national leadership. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" id=\"_ftn1\">[1]<\/a> Since the national elections held in 2005 and 2006, Palestinians of the Occupied Territories had only been allowed vote in the municipal elections of 2012, 2017, 2019, and 2021. Each of these polls had been compromised by low turnout, fraud, and staged presentation of the results, the latter two interventions undertaken to make Fatah&#8217;s loss of popularity in the West Bank invisible.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At this point, the scale of human and material destruction in Gaza has rendered the place nearly uninhabitable. All indications, moreover, suggest Israel\u2019s destructive campaign will continue on for some time longer. Be that as it may, members of the international community are still devoting much of their energies into planning for \u201cthe day after\u201d. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":31824,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_molongui_author":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"podcast":[],"project":[39],"region":[25],"class_list":["post-599","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-article","project-selling-authoritarianism","region-middle-east"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>The Palestinian Authority, a plausible post-Gaza solution? - Middle East &amp; North Africa<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/noria-research.com\/mena\/the-palestinian-authority-a-plausible-post-gaza-solution\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Palestinian Authority, a plausible post-Gaza solution?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"At this point, the scale of human and material destruction in Gaza has rendered the place nearly uninhabitable. All indications, moreover, suggest Israel\u2019s destructive campaign will continue on for some time longer. Be that as it may, members of the international community are still devoting much of their energies into planning for \u201cthe day after\u201d. 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With more than 10 years of research experience as a trained political scientist from Sorbonne University, he has developed expertise on conflict, public institutions, and social dynamics across the region, with a focus on Palestine, Libya, Tunisia, and, more recently, the Gulf. Xavier is a former Research Fellow of the ERC Wafaw program (2015-2017) and the recipient of a two-year field grant from the French Institute for the Near East. Before taking his position at Noria MENA Program, he taught for several years at Al-Quds University (Palestine), Sciences Po Paris and Sorbonne University in Paris. Xavier has contributed to more than 30 articles, chapters, reports and co-edited special issues of academic journals. His work has been presented in international conferences and media outlets since 2012. 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All indications, moreover, suggest Israel\u2019s destructive campaign will continue on for some time longer. Be that as it may, members of the international community are still devoting much of their energies into planning for \u201cthe day after\u201d. 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